What Is Angel Investing

Angel investing is when you give money to a startup in exchange for an ownership stake in the company. You will not receive interest payments or dividends, and there is no repayment schedule. You are not lending money. You are buying a piece of a company that does not yet have a proven track record, and in most cases has not yet made a single dollar.

If the company fails your money is gone. If it gets acquired or goes public, you get a return based on your ownership percentage. That exit, something called a liquidity event, is the only way to get your money out. And it can take many years before that happens, if it happens at all.

This is different from what a venture capitalist does. VCs pool money from many investors and write large checks into companies that have typically progressed beyond the earliest idea stage. Angels use their own money and write much smaller checks into ideas that are barely off the ground. You are earlier and more exposed than a VC, and you are writing a personal check rather than investing through a fund.

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Too busy to read the full post?

The hyperscaler infrastructure demand question became much clearer this earnings season. The harder question is where the money actually ends up. This post walks through the evidence, maps it to each layer of the AI supply chain, and tells you exactly what I am doing and not doing with my own money as a result.

The evidence

I focused on the reports that matter most for the AI infrastructure trade. Here is what they said.

The combine Q2 capex across the four hyperscalers was around $166 billion in a single quarter and several of them raised guidance.

For this earnings season, the hyperscaler infrastructure demand question became much clearer. Value capture has not.

The debate is no longer whether demand exists. The debate is where the money from that demand actually ends up.

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The three major indexes ended the week just a little higher despite it being one of the most volatile stretches of the year. The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% and the 30-year yield pushed to its highest level since 2007. Microsoft and Amazon reported strong cloud growth and the stocks jumped more than 15%. Meta disappointed and the stock fell. Apple also fell due to cautious guidance. PCE inflation came in at 3.7%. It was slightly cooler than expected but it is still sitting at nearly double the Fed’s target number. Q2 GDP came in at 1.5%, well below estimates. Oil was volatile on the week, closing around $84.67 after a brief US-Iran ceasefire, but strikes resumed within 48 hours and the situation remains unresolved. This week SpaceX reports earnings on Tuesday and up to 911.5 million shares become eligible for partial sale on Thursday. The jobs report lands on Friday. This is going to be a full week.

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Last Week in One Line

The market ended the week higher despite a 1,000 point Dow drop Wednesday, a 9-3 Fed vote, and a hedge fund blowing up mid-week. Microsoft and Amazon pulled it back. Both reported strong cloud growth and showed that AI spending is actually turning into revenue.

What I Am Watching This Week

SpaceX earnings on Tuesday and the lockup on Thursday.

SpaceX reports its first ever public earnings on Tuesday August 4 after market close. Two days later, on Thursday August 6, up to 911.5 million shares become eligible for partial sale for the first time. Short interest is already at 34% of the available float, up from 23.3 million shares at IPO to 219.3 million as of July 29. S3 Partners put it directly. The bet is that earnings won’t be good enough to absorb what hits the market Thursday.

I covered the full breakdown in this week’s YouTube video.

The jobs report on Friday.

After last week’s 9-3 Fed vote and September hike probability now sitting at 67%, Friday’s jobs number matters more than it would in a normal month. A strong report gives the hawks more ammunition. Average hourly earnings inside the report are the number I will look at first, not the headline payrolls figure.

Oil and the Iran situation.

WTI crude was volatile this week, closing around $84.67 after the US and Iran agreed to a pause earlier in the week. Then US Central Command intercepted a surprise Iranian attack 48 hours later and strikes resumed. The ceasefire lasted less than two days.

This matters because oil near $100 was part of what pushed the September hike probability to where it is now. If the conflict escalates again and oil climbs back, the Fed does not have much room to wait. Iran situation is on a pause for now and not resolved. If this pause continues, PCE has a better chance to stay lower.

The 30-year yield.

It closed the week at 5.28%, a fresh cycle high. The 10-year is at 4.741%, the highest since January 2025. When long yields move like this it compresses what investors are willing to pay for stocks, especially growth stocks. The tech rebound from last week could be harder to sustain if the yields continue to climb.

Eli Lilly on Wednesday.

I own Lilly. This is the earnings report I am personally focused on this week outside of SpaceX. Weight loss drug revenue and any update on manufacturing capacity are the two things I will be watching in that call.

The Number That Matters Most

67%. That is the probability of September rate hike right now. Every data point that comes out this week will push this number up or down.

Earnings This Week

SpaceX and AMD on Tuesday and Eli Lilly and SanDisk on Wednesday are the two I will be breaking down in the community chat the night results drop. Cloudflare and Datadog on Thursday are worth watching for anyone following the AI infrastructure layer. Constellation Energy matters if you are tracking nuclear power as an AI data center play.

Economic Data This Week

The Bank of Japan held rates at 1.0% last week in an 8-1 vote but signaled further hikes remain under consideration.

My Positioning

I bought Marvell at roughly $182 this week. My original target was $185 but I pulled the trigger slightly below that level because the setup I was waiting for showed up earlier than expected. I am treating this as a starter position. I want to hear the Marvell earnings call before I decide whether to add.

I am not touching SpaceX. Not at current prices. My framework puts fair value somewhere in the $30-40 range based on a 20-27x price to sales multiple on current revenue. The stock closed Friday at $108.37, which is already below the IPO price of $135. That is not close enough to where I would buy regardless of what earnings show Tuesday. I will watch the call for what management says about costs and Starship and update in the community chat Tuesday night. But I am not a buyer here.

Lilly is my other focus this week. I am holding and watching the Wednesday call.

This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.

The goal was never the portfolio. It was always the life.

• You either buy a property and become a landlord, or

• You buy a REIT through your brokerage and collect dividends.

But there is a third option that most everyday investors have not heard of. I am talking about real estate syndications.

This post is for investors who already have a solid financial foundation and are asking what comes next. If you are still building your emergency fund or just getting started with index funds, bookmark this and come back later. This is not where you start.

Consider this an introduction to how real estate syndications work. I am not going to tell you which deals to pick or which operators to trust. What I can do is help you understand what you are looking at before you start doing your own research.

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Why syndications exist

Syndications allow a group of investors to access deals that none of them could access alone. They have one experienced operator running everything for them. This allows them to buy a 250 unit apartment complex, an industrial warehouse, or a self storage center worth millions of dollars. Institutional investors and private equity funds have been doing this for decades and generating strong returns from them.

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I evaluated more than a dozen companies to get here. Two are on my personal watchlist right now. I cover them below along with a third that looks compelling on the surface but does not hold up under scrutiny.

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All three major indexes fell last week. The Nasdaq led the losses at nearly 3% as tech sold off on AI spending worries. The S&P 500 fell 1% and the Dow dropped 0.4%. Oil pulled back Friday on peace talk rumors but is still up roughly 8% on the week. The Fed meets Wednesday and nobody actually knows what happens. This week the Fed decides on rates, four Mag 7 companies report earnings, and PCE inflation along with Q2 GDP both land before Friday.

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Last Week in One Line

Investors punished Alphabet last week for raising 2026 capex guidance to $195-205 billion, dragging the Nasdaq down nearly 3% for the week. Cloud revenue grew 82% year over year. It did not matter.

What I Am Watching This Week

The Fed on Wednesday.

The base case is a hold at 3.5% to 3.75%. The odds the market is pricing in for a Fed rate hike at Wednesday’s meeting went from roughly 10% earlier this month to 38% this week, per CBS News, driven by oil back near $100 and sticky core inflation. The bigger issue is that nobody actually knows what Warsh is thinking, as he stopped giving forward guidance when he took over. Half of FOMC members in June said they support a rate hike by year end. If he signals September is live, the market will move. If he says nothing, that is its own message.

There are three ways Wednesday plays out and each one moves markets differently.

Mag 7 earnings: Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple.

Strong results are not enough if capex guidance continues to get bigger. The Alphabet reaction set the template. Big capex number without a clear return and the stock goes down regardless of how good the rest of the quarter was.

Oil and the Iran situation.

Brent crude hit $100 on Thursday before pulling back on Friday on reports that Pakistan is exploring a path to restart US-Iran negotiations. Trump said Friday he is considering a "massive attack" to force Iran to the table.

PCE inflation on Thursday.

In May, CPI was 4.2%. It slowed to 3.5% in June. If PCE confirms that slowdown, the Fed has cover to hold. If PCE comes in hot, a September hike becomes more likely. This number lands the day after the Fed decision. Even if the Fed does not hike on Wednesday, PCE data will shape what happens next.

Q2 GDP on Thursday.

The Atlanta Fed’s running estimate for Q2 GDP is sitting at 1.7%. 1.7% is not a contraction but it is not the kind of number that makes anyone feel good about the second half. Personal spending number also lands the same day and I will be watching that one.

The Number That Matters Most

38%. That is the odds the market is pricing in for a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, up from roughly 10% earlier this month. A month ago nobody was talking about a 2026 rate hike. Now the September meeting is the first point where a hike is priced at 100% probability. How Warsh talks on Wednesday will confirm which ways this goes. Bond prices are already moving like a hike is coming. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.71%. This is the highest it has been since January 2025.

Earnings This Week

What they say about spending is going to move the whole AI infrastructure space. Vertiv on Wednesday is also relevant for anyone following the data center buildout layer. Teradyne on Tuesday reports with Q2 guided at $1.22B in revenue. As of Q1 2026, AI accounted for roughly 70% of their total revenue.

Economic Data This Week

The Bank of Japan also meets Thursday and Friday, so if they signal any policy shift it adds another layer to what is already a very full week.

My Positioning

I am not making any moves this week before the Fed decision and before I see the Mag 7 earnings. The AI infrastructure article I will publish this week will go deep into IES Holdings and Arteris, both of which report soon. IES reports July 31 and Arteris August 6. I want to hear what management says about their data center pipelines before I start any position. So I am sitting on cash in the satellite portion of my portfolio and watching. If earnings confirm what the data is showing, I will update in the community chat.

Warsh will speak on Wednesday at 2:30pm and until then I do not think I know enough to act.

This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always make sure to do your own research before making any financial decisions.

The goal was never the portfolio. It was always the life.

Private lending keeps coming up as an answer to that question. The returns can exceed bonds and in some cases even the stock market. It is less tied to daily market swings and has real assets backing the loan in some cases. But is it actually better than just investing in the S&P 500?

Based on my research the answer is: it depends. There are real pros and cons to this strategy and understanding both before jumping in is important.

This article is for investors who have their basic investing covered. Come back to this post if you are still funding your emergency fund or just starting investing in the stock market.

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What is private lending and why it exists

People usually invest in stocks, bonds, real estate, metals and cash. Private lending is another category and it has been around forever.

Here is the basic idea - Banks are slow and they focus on your credit score and your tax returns and your debt to income ratio. So if you are a real estate investor trying to close on a property in two weeks, you cannot wait six weeks for a bank to approve your loan, or if you are a small business owner with three great years under your belt but a complicated tax structure, you might not qualify for a traditional loan even though you are clearly a good borrower.

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Nobody can answer that with certainty. What we can do is watch the signals that have historically preceded corrections and know what action each one calls for.

The bubble debate

Credible analysts disagree on whether AI represents a bubble. Here is where the debate stands.

One view: Mark Peterson, director of investment strategy and education at BlackRock, argues that today’s AI investments are supported by real profitability, disciplined capital allocation, and broad-based adoption. Unlike dot-com companies, today’s AI leaders are funding capital expenditures almost entirely from earnings rather than debt. That self-financing makes the sector more resilient to higher interest rates and less vulnerable to liquidity shocks.

Another view: Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk argues that the top ten companies in the S&P 500 are more overvalued today than they were in the 1990s and that the AI bubble was born out of the zero interest rate environment before March 2022. He argues interest rates will remain high and continue to be a headwind for tech and growth.

A more cautious view: Fidelity's capital markets research team argues the end of the AI trend does not appear imminent but identified five specific indicators that would signal deterioration. I used those five signals as the starting point, added current market data from Schwab, BlackRock, and Apollo, built a practical green yellow red decision framework on top of them, and connected them to the AI-specific risks your portfolio is actually exposed to right now. If you want to read Fidelity's original analysis you can find it here.

Rather than taking a position on whether a bubble exists, here are five indicators that would tell you if conditions are deteriorating.

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The PHLX Semiconductor Index dropped 20% from its June highs this week. Oil hit $82.73, up 14% in a single week as U.S. strikes on Iran continued. Netflix missed revenue estimates and dropped 10%. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is near all time highs and 71% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average. This ma…

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The PHLX Semiconductor Index dropped more than 12% in two days in early July, one of its sharpest pullbacks of the year. AVGO limit filled at $365. MU add at $1,050 is underwater on that entry but the blended position is still up. Added CLS, V, and AVUV. I am not selling MU and I am not adding. The question I keep coming back to is whether the AI memory market is structurally different from previous commodity memory cycles. Hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending this earnings season is the single most important signal on the demand side of that question.

Where do you stand?

Full breakdown of what I own and what changed is below.

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I researched this before answering. Here is what I found.

I do not currently own UBER and this is not financial advice.

The framework I used

This is the eight-module framework inside my Stock and ETF Research Worksheet. I ran Uber through every module before writing this post. It helps me answer three questions about any stock: is this a good business, is today’s price reasonable, and what evidence would change my mind? Worksheet

What the research showed

Uber’s business has quietly become one of the strongest cash generating platforms in technology. Revenue growing 18% annually. Free cash flow went from $390 million in 2022 to $9.8 billion in 2025. Operating margins went from under 3% to nearly 12% in two years. The stock is near its 52-week low despite all of that.

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Earnings season starts this week and it is the heaviest calendar in months. The big banks report Tuesday alongside the June CPI drop, while Fed Chair Warsh testifies before Congress for the first time. ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor report later in the week. The ceasefire with Iran collapsed. Oil is back near $72 and rate h…

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Billionaires borrow against their stock instead of selling it. The loan is not taxable income because it has to be repaid. They keep ownership, voting rights, and the tax event is deferred because no sale occurs. Regular investors can access a version of this through their brokerage. The terms are not comparable. The risks are real and specific. This piece explains what is actually available to you, what is not, and who this strategy genuinely makes sense for.

You have probably seen posts like this on LinkedIn

“Ever wonder how Elon Musk stays cash rich without selling his Tesla shares? He leverages his stock options as collateral for massive loans. Genius strategy.”

He does not pledge options. He pledges actual shares. The tax is deferred, not eliminated. And the posts never mention margin calls, governance risks, or the fact that some structures available to founders are not available to ordinary investors.

The strategy exists. The LinkedIn version of it does not.

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The pattern is not new

Infrastructure spending usually comes first. The largest software monetization tends to follow.

The cloud buildout of the 2010s rewarded the companies that built and owned the infrastructure. AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud invested billions in servers, data centers, and networking. In return, they built cloud platforms that generated recurring, high-margin infrastructure and software revenue over time. The infrastructure owners generally captured the largest share of recurring software economics, while many hardware suppliers benefited from the investment cycle itself.

AI is following a similar pattern. The spending cycle is happening now. Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom, and Celestica sit on the supplier side of today’s spending cycle. The question is who captures the monetization cycle that follows.

I think about the AI stack in layers because each layer earns money differently. The software money does not go to one place. It distributes unevenly, and each layer is competing for a different kind of margin.

Here's how I think about each layer and where I believe the best long-term opportunities are.

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The PHLX Semiconductor Index, which tracks the biggest chip companies, dropped more than 12% in two days. The Dow hit a record high the same day. The June jobs report came in at 57,000 jobs added against an estimate of 110,000. Rate hike expectations are at their lowest point in months. Monday opens after a holiday weekend…

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My Roth IRA has seven positions, one dominant holding, and a clear set of rules for where every new dollar goes. NVDA is roughly 65% of the account, and I continue to hold it because the thesis is intact. The remaining 35% is split across three individual growth names (GOOG, COST, LLY), a diversified core (VTI), and an income sleeve (SCHD and VNQ). New contributions are deployed as a lump sum every January 1st, split 70% to VTI, 20% to the income sleeve, and 10% split evenly across whichever conviction names have earned it. Every dollar in this Roth stays in U.S. assets.

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Too Busy To Read The Full Post?

Celestica builds the servers and networking hardware that power AI data centers, with 2026 revenue guidance up 53% to $19 billion. I bought a small position on June 26 and added on June 29. Q2 earnings on July 27 is the next real test of whether that growth holds.

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The U.S.-Iran ceasefire appears to have broken down. U.S. strikes hit Iranian targets Saturday. Iran responded with missiles and drones at U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Oil closed below $70 Friday. Markets now have to decide whether that price still reflects reality. Short week due to July 4th. High stakes open Monday.

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Most investors are more concentrated than they think and most of the advice on fixing it is wrong. True hedges are limited and most diversification tools do not actually protect you in a selloff. What you need is not a hedge. It is a portfolio with more than one engine running. This piece introduces a five engine framework, growth, defensive, rate, inflation, and global, and explains what each one does, what it cannot do, and how to start building toward it without selling what is already working.

Most investors own the same investment ten different ways without realizing it. The most common version today is AI and large cap US technology. But the underlying problem shows up whenever one theme dominates a portfolio.

Pull up your portfolio. List every position. Now ask what each one needs to keep performing. Nvidia needs AI capex to keep growing. Microsoft needs cloud and AI adoption. Your S&P 500 index fund? The top ten stocks inside it now represent roughly one third of the index and most of them are the same names. Meta. Amazon. Alphabet. Apple. If you also own any of those individually, you are doubling down on the same exposure without realizing it.

Owning VOO plus five AI stocks is not a diversified portfolio. It is an AI portfolio with index fund packaging.

You Do Not Need a Hedge. You Need a Second Engine.

People asking how to hedge an AI heavy portfolio are actually asking a different question. They want to know how to make their portfolio less dependent on one outcome.

True hedges are limited. Treasuries often work in growth shocks and recessions but failed in 2022 when inflation was the problem. Cash reduces risk mechanically but costs you returns. Gold hedges currency and inflation stress but not equity drawdowns directly.

Everything else, defensive sectors, international stocks, dividend ETFs, these are not hedges. They redistribute your equity risk toward different factors. They reduce dependence on a single dominant theme. But they will not protect you in a severe broad market selloff the way Treasuries or cash might.

If you buy XLV thinking you are protected and the market drops 30 percent, XLV drops too. Maybe less. But it drops.

You do not need a hedge. You need a second engine.

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Most explanations stop at the definition. This one covers the rules that actually trip people up.

What It Actually Is

You sold Stock A for a $5,000 gain in March. In November, another position is down $3,000 and you decide to sell. That $3,000 loss offsets part of the gain. You are now taxed on $2,000 instead of $5,000.

If your losses exceed your gains, you can use up to $3,000 of the remaining loss to offset ordinary income, or $1,500 if you are married filing separately. Say you had no gains this year but realized $4,000 in losses. You use $3,000 against your income this year. The remaining $1,000 carries forward to next year.

The loss does not disappear. It changes form.

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The Rule That Trips Everyone Up

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